Lodging Analytics Research & Consulting (LARC) expects U.S. RevPAR to increase by 5.5% to $98.51 this year, resulting in an annual RevPAR 14% above 2019 levels. It anticipates ADR to rise by 4.4% this year to $155.88, or 19% above 2019 levels, while occupancy will increase by 1.0% to 63.2%.
For 2024, LARC expects RevPAR to increase by 3.6%, driven by a 2.8% increase in ADR and a 0.8% increase in occupancy.
LARC forecasts 2023 U.S. hotel earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to grow 5% and hotel values to increase 3%.
For 2024, LARC expects U.S. hotel EBITDA to increase by 1% and hotel values to increase by 6% as the outlook for cap rates trends downward.
Market outlooks
Listed below are the best and worst-performing markets based on LARC’s forecasts. Similar to the company’s U.S. forecast, its market-level forecasts are structured on multi-variable regression models with a high level of historical accuracy.
2023 (relative to 2019)
- Top markets for RevPAR growth: Kauai, HI;, Palm Springs, CA; Portland, ME; Florida Keys; and Las Vegas
- Bottom markets for RevPAR growth: :San Jose, CA; San Francisco; Portland, OR; Minneapolis; and Philadelphia
2023 (year-over-year)
- Top markets for RevPAR growth: Washington, DC; New York City; Las Vegas; Kansas City, MO; and Boston
- Bottom markets for RevPAR growth: Florida Keys; Santa Barbara, CA; Miami; New Orleans; and Maui, HI
2024 (year-over-year)
- Top markets for RevPAR growth: San Jose, Seattle, San Francisco, Maui and Minneapolis
- Bottom markets for RevPAR growth: Florida Keys; St. Petersburg, FL; Ann Arbor, MI; San Antonio; and Kauai
2019 – 2027 Outlook
- Top markets for RevPAR growth: Kauai; Maui; Las Vegas; Sedona, CA; and Palm Beach, FL
- Bottom markets for RevPAR growth: San Francisco, San Jose, Cincinnati, Columbus and Minneapolis
- Top markets for value change: Phoenix, Tampa, Las Vegas, Nashville and Anaheim
- Bottom markets for value change: San Francisco, Minneapolis, St. Louis, San Jose and Portland, OR