US Hotels State of the Union March 2023 Edition
A Pictorial Update on Our Latest Thoughts and the Facts and Figures Influencing Our Industry
Key Takeaways
Economy
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February marks nine consecutive months of easing inflation.
CPI Y-o-Y growth was at 6.0% in February, down from the peak of 8.9% in June of 2022. -
Job openings per hotel decreased slightly in January.
Job openings per hotel decreased to 26 in January, down slightly from 29 in December. This is consistent with the trend in national job openings. -
CBRE’s 2023 GDP growth estimate increases.
CBRE revised its 2023 GDP forecast from 0.2% to 0.8%, but lowered 2024 based on more difficult comparisons.
Current Trends
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GOP margins expanded in January.
For the first time in several months, easy Omicron comparisons led to margin expansion in January reaching 26% up from last year’s 21%. -
Search trends are positive.
Large branded hotel search trends reached a post pandemic high and have fully recovered to 2019 levels. High-end travel indicators also reached an all-time high, increasing 24% Y-o-Y in Feb. -
February RevPAR grew owing to easy Omicron comparisons.
February RevPAR increased 13% Y-o-Y and relative to 2019, RevPAR trends remained steady at 108%.
Food for Thought
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The rich have gotten richer.
Total assets held by the top 0.1% of America’s wealthiest has increased 31% since 2019 and more than doubled since 2007. -
CMBS spreads are below pre-pandemic levels and interest rates are close.
In February 2023 credit spreads were below 2019’s levels and interest rates were 80 basis points below last year. -
Fears of ballooning leverage and consumer credit may be overblown.
Contrary to popular narrative, real consumer credit levels remain below pre-pandemic highs, representing 6.5% of real personal disposable income.
About CBRE Group, Inc.
CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE:CBRE), a Fortune 500 and S&P 500 company headquartered in Dallas, is the world's largest commercial real estate services and investment firm (based on 2021 revenue). The company has more than 105,000 employees (excluding Turner & Townsend employees) serving clients in more than 100 countries. CBRE serves a diverse range of clients with an integrated suite of services, including facilities, transaction and project management; property management; investment management; appraisal and valuation; property leasing; strategic consulting; property sales; mortgage services and development services. Please visit our website at www.cbre.com.
