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Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) is expected to report an increase in earnings on higher revenues when it releases its first quarter (Q1) 2023 financial results on April 27th.

According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, the company is expected to post earnings of $0.63 per share, representing a year-over-year change of +50%. Revenues are expected to be $869.45 million, up 11.6% from the year-ago quarter.

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While this consensus outlook is important for investors to gauge the company’s earnings picture, the actual results compared to these estimates could significantly impact the stock’s near-term price.

If HGV’s key numbers in fact top expectations, the stock may move higher. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

Zacks Earnings ESP in forecast HGV’ Q1 2023 earnings results

The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter, with the former being a more recent version of the latter.

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A positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model’s predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

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Combining a positive Earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) is a strong predictor of an earnings beat. Stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.